Under the condition of high carbon emission, the temperature of Earth has increased by 4.5 degrees Celsius. Generally, the carbon emissions determine the rise of global temperature to a certain extent, which in turn leads to the melting of glaciers and increasing sea level. 106 international experts participated in the latest research led by Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. The paper, “Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey”, was published in Nature Partner Journals Climate and Atmospheric Science on May 8. If global emission reduction targets cannot be reached, sea level will rise by 0.6 to 1.3 meters by 2100 and the increase would have reached 1.7 to 5.6 meters by 2300. Up to one-third of Singapore’s altitude is less than five meters above average sea level. In other words, if global warming does not slow down, the land area of Singapore will shrink by at least 33%.
Photo Source: Climate News Network
Even if countries meet the commitments in the Paris Agreement and limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, experts estimate that sea level will rise by 0.5 meters by 2100 and by 0.5 to 2% by 2300. Climate change experts have identified Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets as the largest source of uncertainty as they are important indicators of change in climate and sea-level. According to the Annual Climate Assessment Report 2019 of the Centre for Climate Research Singapore, the weakening of the bipolar gravitation caused by the melting of the ice sheet lead to the fall of the sea level around Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheet. The seawater would be attracted to the equatorial area, causing the sea level in the equatorial area (including Singapore) to be 30% higher than in other regions.
Reference:
Horton, B.P., Khan, N.S., Cahill, N. et al. Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey. npj Clim Atmos Sci 3, 18 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
